Selected work
Regional Adaptive Pathways Planning
Department of Planning & Environment (NSW)
A systems- and values-based methodology for assessing multi-hazard disaster risk and identifying adaptation pathways for safe, affordable housing across the Illawarra Shoalhaven region, developed with CSIRO for the NSW Department of Planning & Environment.
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Overview
The NSW Department of Planning & Environment, in partnership with CSIRO and VAP, developed the Regional Adaptive Pathways Planning (RAPP) project to help Illawarra Shoalhaven - spanning Kiama, Shellharbour, Shoalhaven and Wollongong councils - plan for future housing growth in a changing climate, through a systems- and values-based methodology for assessing multi-hazard disaster risk and identifying adaptation pathways for safe, affordable housing.
Our approach
The NSW Department of Planning & Environment (DPE), in collaboration with CSIRO and VAP, developed a systems- and values-based methodology for assessing multi-hazard disaster risks and identifying adaptation pathways for safe and affordable housing in the Illawarra Shoalhaven region. The project addressed how climate change, population growth, inequities, and net zero transitions interact to influence regional planning decisions, with a deliberate alignment to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The challenge
The Illawarra Shoalhaven region faces accelerating housing growth and internal migration, placing pressure on existing infrastructure, amenity and housing affordability across multiple growth areas. At the same time, the region has been directly hit by catastrophic natural disasters within the last five years, including bushfire at Lake Conjola, riverine flooding at Nowra, storm surge at Lake Illawarra and landslides at Wattamolla, with some areas affected by multiple hazards in the same year. Increased uncertainty from both hazard risk and housing demand meant regional planning needed new processes to remain adaptable over the long term.
Vision and objectives
The project was guided by a vision of deliberative collaboration with a range of diverse stakeholder groups to identify and test options and pathways for housing, and to build consensus on solutions that contribute to more climate adapted, just and disaster resilient futures. This was structured around a continuous cycle connecting the drivers of change, desired futures, plausible futures and opportunities to adjust current practice, with multi-hazard risk assessment at its centre.
Plausible futures
Plausible divergent futures were developed by setting the drivers and parameters of change - population and demographics, spatial distribution and land use, economic development, technological change and physical climate change - to make long-term uncertainty manageable. 'High' and 'low' housing growth scenarios, drawing on the NSW2060 ITLU scenarios, set the boundary conditions for considering safe and affordable housing in the region, tested with a range of stakeholder groups including First Nations, community and government. These were translated into accessible data visualisations of potential housing growth outcomes for areas such as Wollongong and Shellharbour, helping identify areas of high growth and inform infrastructure prioritisation.
Multi-hazard risk assessment
A localised Multi-Hazard Disaster Opportunity and Risk Assessment (MHDORA) integrated hazard, exposure, vulnerability and response data into a central hazard database, capturing stakeholder perspectives on the consequences of the 'things of value' being impacted and the factors causing them to be exposed or vulnerable to natural hazards. Applied across the region, the assessment overlaid multiple hazards onto developable areas, for example around Shellharbour and Lake Illawarra, to identify where growth areas face impacts from a single hazard, multiple hazards, or minimal direct impact, informing resilience infrastructure and governance needs such as stormwater management and building standards.
Adaptive pathways
Adaptive pathways set out decision points, triggers and thresholds for three housing options - increasing dwelling density, maintaining existing density, or relocating through buyback and preventing rebuilding - against increasing degrees of hazard, linked to example planning interventions such as adjusted development overlays, up- or down-zoning, and inter-council development relocation. Pathways were tailored to each settlement type across the region, from infill within and without walkable catchments to expanding townships and greenfield growth areas. Stakeholders' preferred pathways varied by risk tolerance, from the Community Panel's preference for a low-risk pathway to a split response among government, academic, utility, finance and insurance participants depending on the relevant UN Sustainable Development Goal theme.
The outcome
The work integrated hazard modelling, feasibility analysis, and extensive stakeholder engagement, including First Nations, community, government, and private sector participants, to co-design future housing and land use options that are resilient to multiple hazard events and are adaptable to changing circumstances in the future. The project demonstrated how participatory approaches and globally aligned evaluation frameworks can strengthen regional planning and build capability for adaptive, evidence-based decision-making under climate change.